MARKET PERSPECTIVE — The quarter began on a troubling note, with volatility at levels well above what we’ve seen in recent periods. The VIX volatility index reached as high as it did during the peak of the pandemic. This was driven by a multitude of issues including concerns over a slump in US labour data, an unexpected hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), mounting geopolitical tensions and developments in the US election.

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MARKET PERSPECTIVE — Global equity markets continued to climb the wall of worry and
were generally positive for the quarter. The MSCI World Index returned almost 4% for the quarter.

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MARKET PERSPECTIVE — Following a third quarter slump, stocks roared back to life in the final three months of 2023. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 index’s rise in Q4 marked its biggest quarterly percent jump since the fourth quarter of 2020. Equally as impressive, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has not had as strong of a quarter since Q2 of 2021.

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MARKET PERSPECTIVE —

If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.
– George Bernard Shaw

As the leaves start showing signs of changing colours, and days shorten while evenings grow crisper, we can draw inferences from our surroundings to determine our attire for the day. Days into the cyberattack on the Weather Network, we may be struggling to find hard data points for long term forecasts, but by paying attention, we can recognize the signs on our own: autumn is here. If only the rules guiding the economy were as straightforward!

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MARKET PERSPECTIVE —

Patience is not simply the ability to wait – it’s how we behave while we’re waiting.
–Joyce Meyer

It’s easy to doubt the recession warnings we’ve been hearing about since March 2022, when the two-year Treasury yield and the ten-year Treasury yield officially inverted for the first time since 2019. A good deal of evidence seems to dispute the claim. Year-over-year average wage growth in Canada was up 5.1% in June, Canada’s housing market has rebounded sharply since March 2023, the S&P 500 is up over 14% since the beginning of the year, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has increased 29% in 2023, and the US labour market is adding more jobs than forecasted. So where is the evidence of this much-anticipated recession?

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